More Iran steps seen tougher sell to new UN council

UNITED NATIONS: India and South Africa join the UN Security Council on Saturday, bolstering a bloc of countries on the powerful panel that may be reluctant to support new sanctions against Iran over its nuclear programme.

However, barring any shocking revelations about Tehran’s nuclear programme, some analysts suggest that Washington might forgo pursuing new UN steps against Iran in 2011. That may be good news for oil markets, since Western diplomats say Iran’s energy sector would be the next logical area to sanction.

Germany, Portugal and Colombia join the 15-nation Security Council on Jan. 1, also for two-year stints as rotating members.

Apart from Iran’s nuclear ambitions, council diplomats point to other key issues on the council agenda in 2011 the threat of new civil wars in Ivory Coast and Sudan, tensions on the Korean peninsula, Security Council expansion and the expected re-election of Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon for another five-year term starting in 2012.

The five newcomers to the Security Council are not expected to impact its approach to North Korea, where the veto-wielding permanent member China plays a decisive role, or Ivory Coast, where the entire council voiced support for the UN-certified results of last month’s presidential election.

Newcomer South Africa has vowed to raise the possibility of suspending a genocide indictment against Sudanese President Omar Hassan alBashir if a Jan. 9 referendum on south Sudan’s independence goes ahead peacefully. Southerners are widely expected to choose secession over remaining under Khartoum.

If the vote goes well, diplomats say the United States, Britain and France might consider suspending the indictment.

But the new composition of the council could complicate matters for US President Barack Obama’s administration should it choose to pursue a fifth round of UN sanctions against Tehran for refusing to freeze its nuclear enrichment program.

Four rounds of increasingly restrictive UN sanctions on Iran have targeted its nuclear, missile, financial and shipping industries. These have been supplemented by even more draconian US and European Union steps that included energy sanctions.

Tehran insists its atomic programme is peaceful and not intended for producing weapons, as Western powers suspect.

TROUBLES WITH CHINA: The addition of the five rotating members is not the only change for the council. An increasingly self-confident China has been using its diplomatic weight to protect countries that Beijing considers to be its allies.

Beijing fought hard to remove all but one Iranian bank from a list of firms in the fourth round of UN sanctions in June.

It later blocked US attempts to have the council rebuke Myanmar’s military rulers and North Korea over its nuclear programme.When South Africa was last on the council in 2007-2008, it voted twice in favour of sanctioning Iran but joined China and Russia in lobbying to dilute the proposed punitive measures.—Reuters